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Economic Implications of Crimea’s Vote

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As Crimean leaders move forward with their all-but-certain plans to join Russia, the fallout could ultimately affect economic growth, trade, investment and energy supplies.
Sanctions: Western powers may move as early as Monday to impose sanctions against leading Russians.
Europe and the U.S. would probably limit restrictions initially to travel bans and asset freezes on select individuals close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia has said it will retaliate in kind.
The focus on individuals, rather than Russian companies or trade, reflects concern that a new Cold War could hurt the region’s fragile economic recovery.
Russia’s economy: While sanctions would hurt both sides, Russia would suffer much more than the West, analysts say. The European Union’s exports to Russia account for 1% of EU gross domestic product. Russian exports to the EU are worth nearly 15% of Russian GDP.
Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, now an economic adviser to Putin, said even limited sanctions would hit foreign and domestic investment in Russia. Western banks are already shutting off credit lines. Kudrin was quoted by Russian media saying the economy may not grow at all this year as a consequence of the current tension.

via CNN

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza

@alfonso_forex

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