USD/JPY – Dollar Above 103 As Japanese Data Meets Expectations

USD/JPY continues to trade at high levels, as the pair is above the 103 line early in the North American session. The struggling yen has now coughed up about 200 points in the past week. In economic news, US Nonfarm Payrolls was a pleasant surprise, as the key employment indicator jumped to a three-month high. Japanese indicators looked solid, as Current Account and GDP matched their estimates. In Monday releases, Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment slipped to a four-month low. The sole US release today is a speech by FOMC member Charles Plosser.

Japanese Current Account weakened in February, as the deficit ballooned to -$0.59 trillion, up from -$0.20 trillion a month earlier. This matched the estimate. GDP travelled a similar route, dropping to 0.2% in February, down from 0.3% a month earlier. This was the lowest reading since Q4 of 2012, although it too matched the forecast. The yen did not react to these readings, and continues to trade above the 103 line.

US Nonfarm Payrolls was a pleasant surprise on Friday, as the key employment release jumped to 175 thousand in February, up from 113 thousand a month earlier. This was well above the estimate of 151 thousand. The Unemployment rate edged up to 6.7%, slightly above the estimate of 6.6%. With a solid Unemployment Claims earlier last week, the markets can breathe more comfortably as the Fed is likely to take its scissors and trim QE next week for the third time. New York Fed President William Dudley stated last week that the threshold to alter the Fed’s program to wind up QE was “pretty high”. In other words, short of a serious economic downturn in the US economy, we can expect the QE tapers to continue.


USD/JPY for Monday, March 10, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/JPY March 10 at 15:00 GMT

USD/JPY 103.20 H: 103.41 L: 102.94


USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
100.00 101.19 102.53 103.30 104.17 105.70


  • 103.30 is providing resistance. This weak line was breached earlier and remains under pressure. This is followed by 104.17, which has remained intact since late January.
  • 102.53 is the first support level. There is stronger support at 101.19.
  • Current range: 102.53 to 103.30


Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 102.53, 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.65
  • Above: 103.30, 104.17, 105.70, 106.85


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Monday trading. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is showing little movement on Monday. Short positions make up slightly more than half of the open positions in the ratio, indicating a weak trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

The pair continues to drift, as USD/JPY trades at high levels. The pair is showing little movement in the North American session.


USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 5:00 Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment. Estimate 54.3 points. Actual 53.0 points.
  • 10:15 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 23:50 Japanese M2 Money Stock. Estimate 4.4%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.



Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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