39,000 Jobs Will Be Lost After End of Australian Car Manufacturing

Confidential economic modelling by the Productivity Commission has predicted that the end of local car manufacturing could cost up to 39,000 jobs, mostly in Victoria and South Australia.

The commission’s modelling of the worst case scenario after the end of production by Ford, GM Holden and Toyota in the period 2016-17, has predicted that 27,430 jobs would be lost in Victoria and 10,670 in South Australia.

This estimate comprises 11,120 direct jobs being lost at the car manufacturers, plus another 28,100 jobs in the car component supply chain.

Some industry participants believe the commission’s modelling is optimistic because it envisages no additional unemployment after five years, as former car workers get new jobs.

The commission promised in its January position paper that the modelling would be released in February. But it is still consulting industry stakeholders over the forecasting, which included a discussion in Melbourne on Tuesday.

The delay in releasing the modelling means the highly sensitive forecasts on job losses are not expected to be released until after the South Australian state election on 15 March.

via The Guardian

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza