AUD/USD – Steady After Strong Aussie Employment Numbers

The Australian dollar is steady in Monday trading,  as AUD/USD trades in the low-0.89 range. In economic news, Australian ANZ Job Advertisements posted an excellent gain in January. Over in the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI beat the estimate.

After a less than stellar week, US releases started the new trading week on a positive note. ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.2 points in January, beating the estimate of 52.3. On Friday, Pending Home Sales posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, well below the estimate of a 2.9% gain. However, the reading was a strong improvement over the January reading of -8.7%. Earlier in the week, Unemployment Claims came in above the estimate and GDP also missed the forecast. Although market sentiment remains positive about the US economy, recent key releases have not impressed, and the dollar will find itself under pressure this week if US numbers don’t show improvement.

Australian releases did not look impressive last week. Private Capital Expenditure fell by 5.2%, its sharpest drop since April 2009. The reading was much worse than expected, with the estimate standing at -1.0%. This dismal figure came on the heels of Construction Work Done, which dropped by 1.0%, its fourth decline in five months. The weak numbers certainly were of no help to the Aussie, which has given up close to a cent since Tuesday and finds itself back below the 0.90 level.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified on Thursday before a Senate committee. As expected, Yellen said that the Fed remains committed to tapering QE and would like to wind up the bond-buying scheme by the fall. At the same time, she acknowledged the string of weak US releases recently and said that the Fed would closely monitor to what extent the weak numbers are due to cold weather and what portion can be attributed to a “softer outlook”. The next Fed policy meeting takes place in mid-March and the markets will be expecting another $10 billion cut to QE.


AUD/USD for Monday, March 3, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13


AUD/USD March 3 at 14:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8925 H: 0.8941 L: 0.8891


AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8658 0.8735 0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229


  • AUD/USD is having a quiet start to the week. The pair dropped below the 0.89 line early in the Asian session, dropping to a low of 0.8891. The pair has since crossed back above the 0.89 line.
  • The key barrier of 0.9000 continues to provide resistance. This is followed by resistance at 0.9119.
  • 0.8893 is providing support. The next support line is 0.8735, which has remained intact since early February.
  • Current range: 0.8893 to 0.9000


Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8893, 0.8735, 0.8658 and 0.8516
  • Above: 0.9000, 0.9119, 0.9229, 0.9361 and 0.9466


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Aussie has edged higher. AUD/USD ratio is made up of a majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar moving higher against the US currency.

AUD/USD continues to trade at low levels as it trades slightly above the 0.89 line. The pair has edged higher in the North American session.


AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual 5.1%.
  • 00:30 Australian Company Operating Profits. Estimate 1.7%. Actual 2.3%
  • 5:30 Australian Commodity Prices. Actual -12.1%.
  • 14:00 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.7 points. Actual 57.1 points.
  • 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.3 points. Actual 53.2 points.
  • 15:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.0%.  Actual 0.1%.
  • 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 57.2 points. Actual 60.0 points.
  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 15.3M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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