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CNN Survey Shows China Could Beat Growth Estimates

China’s economy grew at a faster pace last year than the government’s official target, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.
Gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in 2013 over the previous year, according to the survey’s median estimate — stronger than the government’s target of 7.5%. But overall, China’s economy is slowing after recording 7.8% GDP growth in 2012 and 9.3% in 2011.

The economists estimated growth in the final quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.6% following a 7.8% peak in the third quarter. The Chinese government will announce official data on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead for 2014, GDP growth is expected to slow to 7.4%, according to the survey.
“Most activity and spending indicators, from imports, industrial output and investment to the manufacturing PMIs, suggest that economic momentum has peaked,” said Qinwei Wang of Capital Economics.

The pace of China’s GDP growth is the most comprehensive gauge of the country’s economic health — an important number to monitor as the government works to bring about stability after decades of runaway expansion. As part of efforts to find more sustainable growth, the government introduced last year a wide range of reforms that tackle everything from fiscal policy to family planning standards.

Economists think the reforms are necessary for China, but putting the plan into action won’t be easy and gains may not be reflected in the economy for years.

via CNN [1]

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza [6]

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse [7]
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza