AUD/USD – Rangebound Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

AUD/USD is showing very little movement in Friday trading, as the pair trades at the 0.90 line late in the European session. In economic news, Australian HIA Home New Sales looked very strong, posting a 7.5% gain in December. Over in the US, today’s highlight is the Non-Farm Employment Change. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims posted another strong reading and beat the estimate.

US employment releases started 2014 on a positive note, as ADP Non-Farm Payrolls looked excellent in December. The key indicator climbed to 238 thousand, up from 215 thousand a month ago. This easily surpassed the estimate of 199 thousand and was the best reading we’ve seen since December 2011. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims later on Thursday, followed by the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. With another QE taper in January a strong possibility, every employment release will be under the market microscope and could impact on the currency markets.

In Australia, the news was mixed from key releases on Thursday. Building Approvals, which is often marked by wild swings, did not show much movement in December, posting a decline of -1.5%. This was well of the estimate of -0.9%. There was better news from Retail Sales, which posted a gain of 0.7%, up from 0.5% in the previous month. This beat the estimate of 0.5%. The Australian dollar didn’t show much reaction to the news, as it continues to trade at low levels.

 

AUD/USD for Friday, January 10, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD January 10 at 13:25 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8896 H: 0.8902 L: 0.8896

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8658 0.8735 0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229

 

  • AUD/USD is rangebound in Friday trading, as the pair hugs the 0.89 line.
  • 0.8893 has reverted to a support role is under heavy pressure from the pair. This is followed by support at 0.8735.
  • The key level of 0.9000 is a strong resistance line. It is followed by resistance at 0.9119.
  • Current range: 0.8893 to 0.9000

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8893, 0.8735, 0.8658, 0.8505 and 0.8411
  • Above: 0.9000, 0.9119, 0.9229 and 0.9305

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD is pointing to gains in short positions in Friday trading. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which has showed very slight downward movement. AUD/USD is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar breaking out and moving higher against the US currency.

AUD/USD continues to trade close to the 0.899 line. We could see some movement from AUD/USD during the North American session, as the US releases the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls later in the day.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:00 Australian HIA Home Sales. Actual 7.5%.
  • 13:30 US Non-Farm Employment Change. Estimate 196K.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 7.0%.
  • 15:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 45.3 points.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.4%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.