Short-term uptrend in USD/SGD remains intact as price hit a new weekly high today. There was some slight pullback as prices hit Channel Top during early European session but there is no evidence of a strong reversal with prices quickly revert back higher without even testing the 1.251 support level.
Nonetheless, technical bearish pressure remains with Stochastic readings pointing lower. But should Stoch curve re-enter the 80.0 level once more, the chance of a Channel Top retest increases and we could potentially even test 1.254 before a stronger bearish corrective pullback comes into play.
Weekly Chart also favor upsides. Price action suggest that 1.25 support is holding, kipping the 2013 rally intact. Stochastic readings are also bullish with Stoch curve entering briefly into Oversold region and looking likely to push higher from the 20.0 level. This is corroborated with the Ichimoku indicator with Kumo keeping prices afloat, opening up a potential move back towards 2013 highs if we trade above 1.257.
There is also potential for downsides though. If we see sharp bearish volatility next week, we could potentially have price actually breaking the thinnest portion of the Kumo – the Kumo twist. Furthermore, next week we have 2 key events lying in wait, MAS Monetary Policy Review on 14th and US Debt Ceiling Dateline on 17th. Depending on the outcome of both events, it is entirely possible that fundamentals may be able to trump technical influences and result in a Kumo Bearish Break where support is the weakest.
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