US10Y – 125.0 Holding On

Daily Chart


Fed Tapering is the most commonly used phrase in market commentary these days, and has been blamed as the driver why US stocks pushed lower yesterday. However, yields of the benchmark 10Y Treasury Note did not increase, but instead Bond prices actually got more expensive, bouncing off the 125.0 mark. This seem to go against the notion that market is extremely paranoid about a tapering announcement during September FOMC meeting, as that should mean cheaper bond prices and higher yields.

Well, considering that this newly renewed fears is purely based on speculation and nothing substantial, it is no surprise that speculators are losing out to technical traders who are lining up 125.0 hoping for a short-term rebound. Furthermore, this is not the first time tapering fears reared its ugly head. It is conceivable that most speculators would have already entered short on Treasuries the first time Bernanke spoke about QE tapering timeline back in the June 19th FOMC meeting, which resulted in US10Y prices falling from slightly above 130 to almost touching 125.0 back on 8th July. Certainly it is possible that some of these traders would have taken profit along the way especially since price did rebound back in Mid July. However, the number of speculators that is available to sell in this round of speculation is definitely going to be lesser than the June batch, resulting in smaller bearish run this time round.

From a technical point of view, the current rebound from 125.0 will face some slight resistance from the descending trendline. Stochastic readings suggest that a bullish cycle is imminent. Should descending trendline is broken, it is likely that stoch readings will also push above 20.0 for a proper bullish cycle signal. 126.0 will be the next level of resistance above the trendline, followed by 127.0. It is important to note that current rally can only be regarded as corrective, as the downtrend from May remains in play. Price will need to break 128.0 and preferably 130.0 before bearish pressure can be alleviated.

Interestingly, Bernanke will not be attending the Jackson Hole Central Banker meeting this Friday, breaking a 25-year tradition. Hence there will not be any keynote speeches by the Fed and we are unlikely to see any major announcement coming out with regards to QE tapering. Perhaps Bernanke is avoiding this meeting like a plague to prevent himself being cornered on whether a QE taper will occur in September. Or perhaps he is simply wanting a holiday, especially since there is no reason for him to attend considering that his term will finish at the end of the year. Whatever the reason may be, we will not be receiving any indication about taper, and hence it is likely that technicals will continue to reign in this week with no other major US news in store.

More Links:
AUD/USD – Led lower by Kiwi despite no “immenient rate cut”
GBP/USD – Finds Comfort from New Support Level of 1.56
EUR/USD – Resistance at 1.34 Stands Firm

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Mingze Wu

Mingze Wu

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Based in Singapore, Mingze Wu focuses on trading strategies and technical and fundamental analysis of major currency pairs. He has extensive trading experience across different asset classes and is well-versed in global market fundamentals. In addition to contributing articles to MarketPulseFX, Mingze centers on forex and macro-economic trends impacting the Asia Pacific region.
Mingze Wu