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Week in FX Asia – AUD and NZD Rise After China Carries Out Bank Lending Reform

Effective Saturday Chinese Commercial Banks will have the freedom to set their own lending rate. Previously the lowest rate that could be offered was 70 percent of the benchmark rate published by the Central Bank.

The move is aimed at increasing internal consumption and employment as companies could potentially have lower funding costs. This reform while not massive it’s a first step that could be followed by deposit rate liberalization. Deposit rates are capped at 110 percent of the benchmark rate. There are strong rumours that the deposit rate could be the next reform as China seeks to boost it’s slowing growth back to life.

The AUD and NZD were the big winners of the move as demand for their goods could increase with more capital available at a cheaper rate for Chinese companies.

The G20 will certainly discuss China’s growth and this going into the weekend will make sure the government is trying to do its part in getting the economy back on the fast growth lane.

Japan Upper House Elections Stand in The Way of Reform

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had to put one of his three arrows back in his quiver as he was preparing for the upcoming elections. The structural reform arrow had to wait after Abe’s party passed the elections as the changes might rub some of the supporters the wrong way. This Sunday the LDP is expected to continue the dominance it regained in the December elections that put Abe in the driver’s seat.

The reforms might have to wait as several analysts and past economic policy makers have commented on the herculean task that awaits Abe if he wants to modernize corporate Japan.

The Yen is trading slightly above 100 versus USD. After this weekend’s elections Abe will face another test as the Japanese CPI is released on Thursday. Inflation is the main indicator to which Abe has aimed the Bank of Japan’s efforts. After slight rise last month, deflation is still very much a reality in Japan, but if the BoJ was able to keep the momentum toward positive inflation the market will reward Abenomics.

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Upper House Elections
* JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July
* AUD Consumer Prices Index
* NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
* GBP Gross Domestic Product
* USD Durable Goods Orders
* JPY National Consumer Price Index

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza [23]

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse [24]
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza