China’s Real Growth Could be Half of Reported

The official economic numbers that China released Monday are dramatically overestimating growth there, the author of “The Coming Collapse of China” told CNBC.

The government said the economy grew 7.5 percent year-over-year in the June quarter—marking the second- straight quarter of slowing growth.

“It’s not growing in the sevens. It’s probably growing in the threes and the fours,” Gordon Chang said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “When you look at electricity statistics, manufacturing surveys, price indices, trade data, all of this is looking very, very bad.”

China’s full-year growth was 7.8 percent in 2012, and the government targets growth of 7.5 percent for this year, which would be the slowest in about two decades.

Last week, the Chinese government reported dismal trade numbers for June—with both exports and imports contracting against forecasts for a much better performance compared to May.

via CNBC

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza