China’s GDP to hit 4-5% by 2020 – Societe Generale

China’s economy will continue to slow, a number of high profile analysts said on Monday, forecasting that growth could fall to as low as 4-to-5 percent by the end of the decade.

“While the consensus of economists still lags, markets are adjusting to weaker growth prospects for China. We believe this adjustment to be structural, as we see Chinese growth slowing to just 6 percent in five years’ time, and 4-5 percent by the end of the current decade,” Societe Generale economist Michala Marcussen said in a note on Monday.

Her comments came after data on Monday showed the Chinese economy grew in-line with expectations in the second quarter at 7.5 percent year-on-year, down from 7.7 percent in the first three months of the year. This marked the second straight quarter of slowing growth.
SocGen held its full-year estimate for 2014 at just over 7 percent, with “little scope for upside surprises, as Chinese policymakers continue their tough love stance on taming credit,” Marcussen said.


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Mingze Wu

Mingze Wu

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Based in Singapore, Mingze Wu focuses on trading strategies and technical and fundamental analysis of major currency pairs. He has extensive trading experience across different asset classes and is well-versed in global market fundamentals. In addition to contributing articles to MarketPulseFX, Mingze centers on forex and macro-economic trends impacting the Asia Pacific region.
Mingze Wu