Investors in gold funds, whose value slumped a record $44.7 billion in the second quarter, may do better in the second half of the year if history is any guide.
Gains averaged 1.3 percent in the second half from 1981 to 2000, when gold endured a two-decade bear market, data compiled by Bloomberg show. First-half losses averaged 3.9 percent in the period. Investors sold 404.4 metric tons from exchange-traded products backed by the metal in the second quarter as prices tumbled into a bear market in April.
Gold is poised for the first annual drop in 13 years after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. The rout already strengthened demand for jewelry and coins around the world and the second half of the year usually sees gains in physical demand for wedding seasons and religious festivals in Asia, including India and China, the biggest buyers.
“The physical trend has always been very seasonal,” said Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metal trading at MKS (Switzerland) SA, a bullion refiner in Geneva. “Physical players are a different breed. They are always buying on the dip. Physical support will continue to be present and it will definitely trigger interest.”
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