China’s money-market cash squeeze is likely to reduce credit growth this year by 750 billion yuan ($122 billion), an amount equivalent to the size of Vietnam’s economy, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
The number is the median estimate of 15 analysts, whose projections last week ranged from cuts of 20 billion yuan to 3 trillion yuan. The majority of respondents also said they approve of the government’s handling of the credit crunch and said the episode reinforces their expectations for policy reforms such as loosening controls on interest rates.
June credit data due as soon as this week will give investors clues to how much the cash squeeze, which sent interbank borrowing costs soaring to records last month, is affecting the world’s second-biggest economy. Whether a slowdown extends into the second half may hinge on how effectively Premier Li Keqiang can redirect funding after his clampdown on speculation.