Week in FX Americas – Carney: No Loonie No More

Thankfully the longest Central Bank goodbye is finally over. Now officially the ex, Mark Carney should be vacating Canada’s Central Bank’s Ottawa building this weekend, handing his key pass over to Stephen Poloz, the new BoC Governor before he makes his way across the pond where he will officially take the reins as the Governor of the Bank of England on “Canada Day” (Nice touch!).

Outgoing BoE Governor, Mervyn King officially presides over his last rate meeting next week. The rest of the Canadian Market can now get back to watching economic fundamentals rather than reading about the first foreign national BoE Governor’s shortcomings in the English press.

On Friday the Canadian economy beat expectations for Q1, growing at the fastest pace in six-quarters, supported by the best exports gain in nearly two-years (+1.5% and five times faster than imports). GDP grew at +0.6%, q/q or +2.5% annually, just beating its largest trading partner’s expansion figure of +2.4%. The market consensus call was for a growth rate of +2.3% where as the BoC had projected a +1.5% expansion in April’s Monetary Policy report. Final domestic demand rallied +0.1% in Q1 (slowest pace in 4-years), as consumer spending and business investment weakened (another global phenomena) while the Harper government spending remained unexceptional.

The loonie remains relatively active in a modest range, predominately pushed by month end requirements and excess oil dollar selling. Short-term dollar resistance remains close to 1.0385-90 with dollar support sub-1.03 at 1.0265-70.

• US Chicago PMI Rises More than Forecast after Last Month’s Disappointment
• US Consumer Confidence HIts Highest Level Since 2007
• Canada Posts Fastest Growth Since 2011
• USD/CAD Near 1.03 Amid Narrowing Current-Account Deficit
• Brazil Economy Grows Below Forecast at 0.6 Percent
• Global Appetite for Stocks Continues
• Fed Speculation Leads to Solid Month for U.S. Dollar
• OECD cuts Global Growth Even as US and Japan Give Hope
• U.S. 10-Year Yields Fall From 12-Month High
• US Consumer Confidence Rises to a 5 Year High
• US Home Prices Rise in March
• Exit from U.S. and Japan QE Won’t be Smooth
• Bernanke Made it Clear the Fed May Change Policy Earlier

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