Nikkei 225 Technicals – Shooting Star Seen on Monthly

Monthly Chart


Is this the correction we’ve been looking for? Despite Abenomics entering into full swing right now, economic data hasn’t been the most encouraging. Stocks have came down considerably from May highs, and is currently trading below the 61.8% Fib. If June continues to be bearish, the Evening Star bearish reversal pattern will be completed, and may usher in new bearish impetus for the 2nd half of 2013. Bearish acceleration may even be higher if price manage to push below the 50.0 level while the Evening Star is formed. Below the 50.0%, the 38.2% fib and confluence with 2010 April highs will be critical as it is the last vestige for current bull trend to remain intact.

Fundamentally, should stocks be this high? Earnings of N225 component stocks have increased, but a large part of the increased is attributed to the declining Yen, which improves the returns of exports. Actual demand of the product offerings of the firms remain weak, with Industrial Production remaining negative on a Y/Y basis. Furthermore, consumer consumption rate has not been growing as much as stocks, which shows that stocks are indeed being overvalued right now. Nonetheless, sentiment is highly unpredictable, and traders could still easily buy into current dip if euphoria remains high. Therefore traders are always recommended to assess their risk tolerance before entering this reversal move, as the high tail from previous month would mean that relevant stop losses will be much further away than usual, with increased volatility to be expected.

More Links:
GBP/USD – Surges Strongly Through 1.52
AUD/USD – Pushing Up to Resistance at 97 Cents
EUR/USD – Surges Through 1.30 and Settles

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Mingze Wu

Mingze Wu

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Based in Singapore, Mingze Wu focuses on trading strategies and technical and fundamental analysis of major currency pairs. He has extensive trading experience across different asset classes and is well-versed in global market fundamentals. In addition to contributing articles to MarketPulseFX, Mingze centers on forex and macro-economic trends impacting the Asia Pacific region.
Mingze Wu