Week in FX Americas – When Will The Loonie Begin Its Real ‘Fall From Grace’?

Why is the CAD not any lower? Gold is off $60, crude is down $3 and Friday’s US data disappointed. As per usual, for an uninteresting currency that has been trading in a contained range so far this year, it is not surprising to witness a delayed reaction. The market should expect the loonie bears to come out of hibernation and finally want to sell some of their CAD dollars.

The currency bears will point to Gold’s long-term support levels been broken – there is danger that this move lower continues. The next real level of support for the yellow metal is around the $1475 area. It will be very interesting to see how the commodity bulls will react first thing next week.

There was no real news that sparked the Friday afternoon gold move lower. It feels like the commodity bulls finally lost interest and threw in the towel. Prudently, we should expect more investors to step aside so as to wait and see how far this market shake out progresses. Many have to be wondering what the logic is behind this move especially with central banks globally, and specifically Japan, ramping up the money printing.

With the lack of domestic developments, the CAD remains beholding to external headlines. With domestic order books remaining relatively thin topside, prices continue to find better bids on dips for now – however the game plan could change Sunday night.



* CNY Real GDP
* AUD RBA Policy Meeting Minutes
* GBP Consumer Price Index
* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
* EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)
* USD Consumer Price Index
* NZD Consumer Prices Index
* GBP Bank of England Minutes
* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
* USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
* CAD Consumer Price Index

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell