Fed Study: China’s Growth Could Slow Sharply by 2030

Economic growth in China faces mounting headwinds and could fade dramatically in the years ahead due to declining productivity and an aging population, according to a U.S. Federal Reserve study.

Trend growth could slow gradually to around 6.5 percent by 2030, or it could break much more sharply to a pace under 1 percent if forces undermining economic activity combine in a “worst-case scenario,” according to the study, which was published online on Monday. Over the past decade, China’s economy grew on average around 10 percent a year.

“The GDP growth rate is the sum of the growth in employment and the growth in output per employee. China faces challenges in both of these categories,” wrote author Jane Haltmaier, a senior adviser in the Fed’s Division of International Finance.


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