EUR / USD Drops as EU Data Disappoints and US Retail Sales Beats Expectations

The economic indicators our of Europe have not been kind to the single currency. Yesterday Germany published soft numbers and this time it was the turn of France. French Non-farm payrolls and CPI came below expectations. French NFP recorded a −0.3% gain less than the −0.2% forecasted. The Eurozone’s Industrial output came in at −0.4%. The market was expecting the data to be an under performer as France and Germany had already reported their individual figures.

The market did not fully anticipate a strong United States retail sales figure. Total sales growth was 1.1% doubling the anticipated 0.5%. The combination of weak numbers in Europe and strong in the US drove the EUR/USD to levels not seen since last year since the fiscal cliff debate was in full swing.

Greece met with Troika officials (EC, ECB and IMF) amid protests in the streets. The social movements that started as an anti-austerity move have now transplanted themselves deeply in political spheres. Italian elections were inconclusive after the Five Start Movement came out of nowhere to split the vote. Italian bond sales have suffered from the uncertainty and could overtake Spanish bond yields.

Tomorrow marks the start of the European Economic Summit. Today Germany announced that it had reached a spending plan for 2014 without the contribution to the European Stability Mechanisms, the German budget would be close to being balanced.

* All day – EU Economic Summit
* 12:30 – US PPI
* 12:30 – US Unemployment Claims
* 12:30 – Current Account
* 13:00 FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

* All day – EU Economic Summit
* 08:30 – US PPI
* 08:30 – US Unemployment Claims
* 08:30 – Current Account
* 09:00 FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza