Most if not all major currencies traded stronger against AUD following the dismal Employment Data. AUD/SGD is brought to particular attention due to its sideways nature observed sin Jan 14, with 1.29 acting as a floor. Once again we’ve reached the floor for the 4th time in the same number of days. Now what?
Well, Stochastic readings suggest that price could still yet head lower with price already slightly lower than yesterday’s swing low but Stochastic reading higher than before ( see 10-12pm Jan 16th SGT). Arguments can also be made for a case of a downward channel, and current price have some space before hitting the Channel Bottom.
From the Daily perspective, 1.29 remains a significant level that is keeping AUD/SGD from the bowels below (read: 1.265- 1.27) Stochastic remains on the Overbought front but could easily read below 80.0 should price break lower from 1.29, adding confirmation to a bearish sell-off.
Weekly chart shows prices looking lower, with a potential Triangle being formed from the 1.25 base vs slope from Feb ’12 high connecting Aug ’12 high. If we were to accept that weekly chart display a down trend bias, then current price level can be interpreted as a potential for a reversal pattern to form, before testing 1.25 base once more. Interim support can be found along 1.27. Stochastic is also just entering Overbought region, lining us up for a future bearish confirmation.
Despite all these, the scenario for continued ranging in the short-term cannot be ignored. This is also due to lack of clarity from current weekly candle. Yes, overall outlook remain bearish, but avoid jumping the gun as we could have to wait 1-2 more weeks minimum for proper candlestick patterns to emerge. Within these weeks, fundamentals could change that would make the weekly chart to portray a bullish turn instead.
Upcoming News Affecting AUD/SGD –
17th Jan 09:00pm Chinese GDP q/y
22nd Jan 07:30pm CPI q/q
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