Current price level is sitting on a busy junction of important lines: This week’s Pivot (dash), Resistance line (pink) and SMA 200. Failure to hold onto current levels opens up Weekly S3, which is the confluence of the twin peaks seen in Oct 2011 and Mar 2012.
Open position ratio is generally used as a contrarian indicator: Long positions decrease -> price rally and vice versa (see Jul ’12 Long Position peak). As current ratio is still showing Net Short position, current bullish bias/momentum should theoretically remain. However, the Short positions have also lost significant ground since the trough formed in Nov ’12, suggesting that we could see a slow down in bullishness soon, or at least a meaningful pullback before JPY seasonality takes over leading into end of Q1 ’13.
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