The Chinese economy is more likely to rebound in the October-December period from the slowest quarterly expansion in 14 quarters “with positive signs,” the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said in a report released Monday.
Fixed-asset investment, particularly the construction of infrastructure projects, will continue to be the major driving force of the economy in the months to come, according to the CISA report.
As the country posted better readings on investment, consumption and export in September, the CISA said, economic growth has stabilized in the third quarter and there is greater likelihood for a rebound in the coming months.
China’s economy expanded only 7.4 percent year on year in the July-September period, marking the slowest quarterly growth in 14 quarters.
The report quoted Yi Gang, vice governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as saying that the Chinese economy is expected to expand 7.8 percent in 2012, higher than the 7.5-percent annual growth targeted by the government.
The CISA indicated that the government might introduce more measures to stabilize the economy in the wake of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is slated to open on Nov. 8.
“We can’t rule out such a possibility,” the CISA said, adding that an improving economy and higher prices will boost crude steel output in coming months, but weak demand from the property and manufacturing sectors will make a rapid recovery very difficult.
China’s crude steel output added only 0.6 percent year on year to reach 57.95 million tonnes in September, with the daily crude steel production accelerating 2 percent from the August level, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.