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NFP not to trigger Fed Action

Consensus believes that the tepid NFP print is not so bad that it would trigger some sort of immediate Fed reaction in the form of new stimulus. The reality is that the US unemployment rate is stuck, hiring rates are modest, and the bottom has not fallen out of the jobs market just yet. Despite all this, Obama has got to be concerned. The market should be expecting the Fed to actively discuss reducing the interest on excess reserves at its next meet and maybe follow Denmark’s and ECB’s lead. If not, there is likely to be “a serious discussion of policy options aimed at dealing with an economy that is no longer making progress toward reducing unemployment.” The Fed has time to take in more data and figure out how much the warm weather is having an effect on the job scene. Until then, it’s upward and onward with Operation Twist.

Below are some other highlights of the week:



EUROPE Week in FX [1]

ASIA Week in FX [2]



  • This week is dominated by trade/growth data reported in CNY, CAD and USD
  • CNY has CPI and USD PPI
  • FOMC has its minutes and the BoJ its rate decision announcement
  • Unemployment and claims come from AUD and USD
  • Business and consumer sentiment is released in CAD and USD
  • GBP has manufacturing production to digest


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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell [7]

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse [8]
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

Latest posts by Dean Popplewell (see all [7])