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CAD CPI in agreement with BoC revised forecast

There were no surprises in this morning’s data, inflation remains subdued, albeit in a slightly stronger month over month pace in non-seasonally adjusted terms (+0.2% vs. -0.1%), in part due to the weak base effect from the previous report. The seasonally adjusted headline (+0.3%) came in stronger than the non-seasonal, while the all important core (+0.1%) was a tad weaker.

The prints were very much in line with this week’s OCT MPR report. Policy makers revised forecast was for headline CPI to come in at +1.8%, y/y (July estimates stood at +2.1%), and this morning’s number matches that for the full quarter while inflation remains below the +2% target.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, three of the eight major components registered declines, including food, shelter and health. Clothing happened to lead the gains (+3%). Under the special aggregates, energy and gas were down -0.4% and -0.3%, respectively. Prices of consumer goods were up +0.1%, while those of services were +0.2% higher.

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell [6]

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse [7]
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

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