USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Slips to 4-Week Low, Current Account Next

The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2890, up 0.20% on the day. The Canadian dollar has suffered a rough week, declining 1.4 percent. Currently, the currency is at its lowest level against the greenback since November 1. On the release front, Canada’s current account deficit is expected to rise to CAD $20.0 billion. The US releases unemployment claims and Personal Spending. On Friday, the US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The US economy continues to perform well, and there was more good news on Wednesday, as Preliminary GDP for the third quarter posted a sharp gain of 3.3%. This was higher than the initial estimate of 3.0% and marked the fastest growth rate since Q3 of 2014. This was particularly impressive, as the southern US was battered by major hurricanes which caused significant economic damage. Consumer confidence levels are sky-high, but consumer consumption softened in the third quarter. However, business spending improved in the third quarter. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sounded upbeat about the economy, saying that the expansion was broad-based, across sectors of the economy.

Canadian inflation indicators pointed upwards on Tuesday, but the Canadian dollar couldn’t take advantage and lost more ground against the US currency. The Raw Materials Price Index jumped 3.8% in October, rebounding after a decline of 0.1% a month earlier. This marked the indicator’s strongest gain in 2017. The Industrial Product Price Index also rebounded after a decline, posting a gain of 1.0%. Elsewhere, Bank of Governor Stephen Poloz sounded upbeat about the stability of the financial system, noting that the labor market was strong and higher interest rates had helped cool the housing market frenzy.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Thursday (November 30)

  • 8:30 Canadian Current Account. Estimate -20.0B
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 241K
  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%
  • 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 62.2
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -37B
  • 12:30 US FOMC Member Randal Quarles Speaks
  • 13:00 US FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks

Friday (December 1)

  • 8:30 Canadian Employment Change
  • 8:30 Canadian GDP
  • 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.4

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, November 30, 2017

USD/CAD, November 30 at 7:55 EDT

Open: 1.2865 High: 1.2902 Low: 1.2857 Close: 1.2890

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2630 1.2757 1.2860 1.3015 1.3165 1.3268

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged higher but retracted

  • 1.2757 is providing support
  • 1.2860 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2860

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2860, 1.2757 and 1.2630
  • Above: 1.3015, 1.3165 and 1.3268

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, long positions have a slight majority (52%), indicative of slight trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.