Gold Volatility Continues over Tax Reform Prospects

Gold has posted sharp losses in the Monday session. In North American trading, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1277.84, down 1.2% on the day. On the release front, the sole event is CB Leading Index. The indicator gained 1.2%, well above the forecast of 0.6%. On Tuesday, the US will publish Existing Home Sales. As well, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak at an event in New York City.

There was good news from US construction numbers on Friday. Building Permits for single-family homes jumped to 1.30 million, above the estimate of 1.25 million. The annualized pace of 839,000 building permits in October was the fastest since September 2007. Housing Start also sparkled, accelerating to 1.29 million, compared to an estimate of 1.19 million. The catalyst for the strong numbers were hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused massive damage in the southern part of the US. With rebuilding efforts well underway, construction numbers should remain strong in the fourth quarter.

As investors keep a close eye on tax reform, gold prices continue to fluctuate. Gold prices jumped 1.2% on Friday, only to surrender those gains on Monday. President Trump won a major victory on Thursday, as the House of Representatives passed its version of the tax bill, by a vote of 227-205. However, with the vote largely based on party lines, Republicans will have a tougher battle passing the Senate version of the bill, as the Republicans have a slim majority of 52-48. The tax legislation provides major tax relief and cut corporate taxes from 35% to 20%, and if Congress does enact a new tax code, the US dollar could make strong gains, at the expense of gold.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (November 20)

  • 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 1.2%

Tuesday (November 21)

  • 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.42M
  • 18:00 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Monday, November 20, 2017

XAU/USD November 20 at 12:30 EST

Open: 1294.34 High: 1294.96 Low: 1276.99 Close: 1277.88

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1213 1240 1260 1285 1307 1337
  • XAU/USD posted small losses in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted considerable losses in North American trade
  • 1260 is providing support
  • 1285 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1260 to 1285

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1260, 1240 and 1213
  • Above: 1285, 1307, 1337 and 1367

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (66%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.