Canada: Consumer Price Index, October 2017

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 1.6% gain in September. The all-items excluding gasoline index rose 1.3% year over year in October, after increasing 1.1% in September.

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in seven of the eight major CPI components in the 12 months to October, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the increase. The clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis.

Transportation prices rose 3.0% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 3.8% increase in September. This deceleration was led by gasoline prices, which increased 6.5% year over year in October after increasing 14.1% the previous month in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. At the same time, the purchase of passenger vehicles index rose 1.5% month over month in October, providing the impetus for the largest year-over-year gain in this index since March 2017.

The recreation, education and reading index increased 1.5% year over year in October, following a 2.1% increase in September. Prices for travel tours contributed the most to this deceleration, increasing 4.4% in the 12 months to October after a 7.3% gain in September. The recreational services index increased 5.2% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 14.7% increase in September. Meanwhile, prices for digital computing equipment and devices (-4.4%) declined at a slower rate on a year-over-year basis in October than in September.

Consumer prices for household operations, furnishings and equipment rose 0.2% in the 12 months to October after declining year over year for three consecutive months. Prices for telephone services increased 3.9% on a monthly basis, leading to a 0.1% year-over-year decline in October following a 3.1% decrease in September. Prices for child care services increased 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in October. Additionally, the tools and other household equipment index recorded a smaller year-over-year increase for the month than was seen in September.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose less on a year-over-year basis in five provinces in October than in September. Prices in Saskatchewan accelerated, while four provinces registered the same CPI increase as in the previous month.

Prices in Prince Edward Island increased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in October after rising 2.4% in September. This was largely attributable to an October 2016 increase in the province’s Harmonized Sales Tax, which no longer factors into the 12-month movement of the all-items index. Traveller accommodation prices declined 8.8% year over year in October after increasing 11.1% in September.

The CPI rose 0.9% year over year in Newfoundland and Labrador in October, following a 1.4% gain in September. The property taxes and other special charges index fell 4.2% in the 12 months to October, in contrast to the national-level index, which rose 2.8%. Prices for fresh fruit fell 8.1% in the 12 months to October after increasing 2.2% in September. At the same time, consumer prices for women’s clothing declined less in October than in September.

In Saskatchewan, the CPI increased 2.0% in the 12 months to October, after rising 1.9% in September. The increase in consumer prices was partly attributable to the telephone services index (-6.3%), which declined less on a year-over-year basis in October than in September. Prices for food purchased from stores increased 2.2% in the 12 months to October after rising 1.4% in September. Saskatchewan recorded the largest year-over-year provincial price deceleration for children’s clothing.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in October, matching the gain in September.

In October, six major components increased while two declined. The household operations, furnishings and equipment index (+0.5%) and the health and personal care index (+0.5%) recorded the largest increases. The recreation, education and reading index (-0.3%) and the food index (-0.2%) both declined.

StatsCanada

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell