Oil Gushes Lower Leading Commodity Exodus

Oil prices tanked overnight as an overbought commodity market finally ran out of steam.

The long-awaited short-term correction in oil prices finally occurred overnight with Brent and WTI, both plunging some 3% as commodities prices, in general, were cratered on fears of slowing growth in China. To be fair, given the bullish run and extended long positioning across commodities in general in recent times, it was only going to one straw to break the camel’s back and see a mass rush for the fire exits by long positioning.

 

Oil, in fact, received a series of camel straws across its back which all came together to produce the overnight sell-off. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Crude Inventories came in at +6.5 million barrels against an expected drawdown of -1.6 million barrels. China data yesterday was slightly on the soft side. Finally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Report put the boot well and truly into crude. The IEA forecast that demand would drop with prices at these levels, that American shale would continue to ramp up production and said temporary chances in production rather than structural ones were responsible for much of the recent rally.

 

Brent crude’s double tops at 64.80 and 64.45 are now well in place as strong medium-term resistance with interim resistance at 62.70. Below its present level at 61.60, critical support for the rally currently sits at 60.00, a daily triple bottom and also trend-line support this morning. A daily close under this level opens the doors to a test of the long-term trend line at 57.30.

Brent Crude Daily

WTI sits at 55.00 barely above its overnight close. 56.15, the approximate low of the week is now formidable resistance. This is followed by last week’s high at 57.80. WTI’s downside looks less secure with trend line support nearby at 54.50 with a break opening up 53.50 and then 52.50.

WTI Daily

 

On a positive note, the technical indicators have unwound their extremely overbought levels and then some. Whether this is enough to support crude prices, as we negotiate tonight’s official U.S. Crude Inventories, remains to be seen.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Currency Analyst
Based in Singapore, Jeffrey has over 25 years experience in the financial markets, having traded currencies, options, precious metals and futures. Jeffrey started his career at Barclays Bank in New Zealand. However he has spent most of it in London and Asia.Jeffrey focuses on the Asia time zone across asset classes. A regular commentator on business news TV and Radio, he is originally from New Zealand and holds an MBA from Cass Business School, London.
Jeffrey Halley

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