USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Ticks Lower, US Consumer Confidence Next

The Canadian dollar has inched lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2667, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to remain at high levels, with an estimate of 100.8 points.

Canadian housing numbers jumped on Wednesday, helping the Canadian dollar hold its own against the greenback. Housing Starts improved to 223 thousand, well above the forecast of 211 thousand. This matched the highest reading since March. There was more good news from Building Permits, which soared 3.8%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. This followed two sharp declines. On the inflation front, the New Housing Price Index edged higher to 0.2%, matching the estimate.

After staying on the sidelines in October, the Bank of Canada has left the markets guessing regarding a December rate hike. Earlier this week, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz downplayed concerns about low inflation levels, as the inflation target of 2 percent remains elusive.  The BoC will have to keep a close eye on developments south of the border. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise rates in December, and if the BoC does not match the hike, the Canadian dollar will likely weaken against the greenback. Another headache for the BoC is the threat from the US administration to pull out of the NAFTA agreement, which is a cornerstone of Canada’s economy. On his Asian trip, US President Trump has reiterated that he favors bilateral trade agreements, rather than multilateral arrangements. If Trump applies this stance to relations with Canada and Mexico, NAFTA could be in trouble.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Friday (November 10)

  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.8
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

USD/CAD for Friday, November 10, 2017

USD/CAD, November 10 at 6:45 EDT

Open: 1.2680 High: 1.2686 Low: 1.2666 Close: 1.2667

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2357 1.2441 1.2598 1.2701 1.2778 1.2943

USD/CAD inched lower in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

  • 1.2598 is providing support
  • 1.2701 is the next line of resistance
  • Current range: 1.2598 to 1.2701

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2598, 1.2441 and 1.2357
  • Above: 1.2701, 1.2778, 1.2943 and 1.3032

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing slight movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions have a majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.