USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Lower, Canadian Inflation Report Next

The Canadian dollar has posted losses in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2700, down 0.22% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases the New Housing Price Index, while the US will publish unemployment claims. On Friday, the US publishes Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Canadian housing numbers jumped on Wednesday, helping the Canadian dollar hold its own against the greenback. Housing Starts improved to 223 thousand, well above the forecast of 211 thousand. This matched the highest reading since March. There was more good news from Building Permits, which soared 3.8%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. This follows two sharp declines.

On Tuesday, Bank of Governor Stephen Poloz on Tuesday, after Poloz maintained a neutral stance towards interest rates. Poloz said that the Bank continued to monitor how the economy was doing after rate hikes in July and September. The markets were caught off guard by the September move, and the Canadian dollar responded with strong gains. Poloz did not offer any insight as to future rate hikes, leaving the markets guessing regarding a December rate hike. Poloz added that he was not concerned that inflation remains below the BoC’s target of 2 percent. The BoC will have to keep a close eye on the US, as the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise rates in December. If the BoC does not match the hike, the Canadian dollar will likely weaken against the greenback. Another headache for the BoC is the threat from the US administration to pull out of the NAFTA agreement, which is a cornerstone of Canada’s economy.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (November 9)

  • 8:30 Canadian New Housing Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 232K
  • 10:00 US Final Wholesales Inventories. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 15B
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction

Friday (November 10)

  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.8

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, November 9, 2017

USD/CAD, November 9 at 8:00 EDT

Open: 1.2728 High: 1.2741 Low: 1.2688 Close: 1.2700

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2357 1.2441 1.2598 1.2701 1.2778 1.2943

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

  • 1.2598 is providing support
  • 1.2701 is a fluid line. Currently it is showing weak resistance
  • Current range: 1.2598 to 1.2701

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2598, 1.2441 and 1.2357
  • Above: 1.2701, 1.2778, 1.2943 and 1.3032

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio remains unchanged this week. Currently, long and short positions are almost evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD takes next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.