EUR/USD – Euro Dips to 14-Week Low on Soft German Mfg. Report

The euro has recorded losses in the Tuesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1566, down 0.37% on the day. The pair remains under pressure, and has dropped to its lowest level since mid-July. On the release front, German Industrial Production plunged 1.6%, a sharper drop than the forecast of -0.7%. Eurozone consumer spending numbers were mixed. Retail PMI slowed to 51.1, down from 52.3 in the previous reading. Retail Sales rebounded with a gain of 0.7%, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. In the US, today’s highlight JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to soften to 5.98 million. As well, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver remarks at an event in Washington.

Eurozone retail sales reports were mixed on Tuesday. Retail PMI came in at 51.1 in October, pointing to muted expansion in the retail sector. There was much better news from September retail sales, as gain of 0.7% came after two straight declines, and was the strongest gain since February. The markets are hoping for strong euorozone consumer spending in the fourth quarter, given the robust German economy and stronger economic conditions in the eurozone.

Donald Trump suffered a humiliating defeat with his health care proposal, and the President has now set his sights on tax reform. Trump wants Congress to pass legislation overhauling the tax code before the end of the year, but that will be a tall order, as most Democrats have come out against the proposal, and not all Republicans are on board. The bill would cut corporate taxes from 35% to 20%, but predictably, Democrat and Republican lawmakers are at odds as to whether the bill will lower taxes for the middle class. Expectations that Trump will cut taxes has been the catalyst for a stock market rally over the past year, and if the bill does become law, the US dollar will likely gain ground.

Next Four Days Will Be Crucial for the GOP Tax Bill

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (November 7)

• 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate -0.7%. Actual -1.6%
• 3:30 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -76.3B
• 4:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
• 4:00 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.9%
• 4:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Actual 51.1
• 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.7%
• All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
• 10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 51.2
• 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 5.98M
• 12:35 US FOMC Member Randal Quarles Speaks
• 14:30 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks
• 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 18.4B

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, November 7, 2017

EUR/USD for November 7 at 5:45 EDT

Open: 1.1608 High: 1.1615 Low: 1.1566 Close: 1.1566

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

• 1.1489 is providing support
• 1.1574 has switched to a resistance role after losses by EUR/USD on Tuesday

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1489, 1.1366 and 1.1268
• Above: 1.1574, 1.1657, 1.1777 and 1.1876
• Current range: 1.1489 to 1.1574

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (62%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move downwards.

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