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A Hot Canadian and U.S Jobs Market

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  • US Labor Oct non-farm payrolls +261k; consensus +315k
  • US Oct Unemployment Rate +4.1%; Consensus +4.2%
  • US Oct Average Hourly Earnings -0.04%, or -$0.01 to $26.53; Over Year +2.4%
  • US Oct Private Sector Payrolls +252k and Government Payrolls +9k
  • US Oct Labor-Force Participation Rate 62.7%
  • US Sep Payrolls Revised to +18K; Aug Revised to +208K

    • U.S. employers hired at a strong pace last month, and revisions showed the labor market weathered hurricane damage better than previously estimated.

    Disappointing was wages, it failed to break out, rising +2.4% from a year earlier, a slowdown from last month.

    Strong revisions

    Payroll growth was significantly stronger than previously estimated in recent months. Upward revisions showed +90k more jobs were added to payrolls in August and September than previously reported.

    September hiring was revised to a gain of +18k from an initial estimate of down -33k. When combined with August and September’s job growth, data show the economy added jobs over the last three months at a pace of +162k a month.

    Despite being a strong print, it did not beat market expectations. The dollar is trying to gain some traction across the board (€1.1663, £1.3030 and ¥113.34), with the one exception CAD (C$1.2742).

    Canadian Job Market on Fire

  • Canada Oct net jobs +35,300 from Sep vs. forecast at +15,000
  • Canada Oct full-time jobs +88,700; part-time -53,400
  • Canada Oct jobless rate +6.3%; Sep +6.2%
  • Canada Oct avg. hourly wages +2.4% y/y

    • Canada added jobs (+ 35.3k) in October at a stronger-than-expected pace amid a slowing economic backdrop, with full-time employment surging and wage gains accelerating for a second straight month.

    The unemployment rate rose from a post crisis low of +6.2% to +6.3%, but that was due to more young people searching for work.

    October’s advance marked the 11th straight month of job gains, which is the longest streak in over a decade. All of the net new jobs added were in the private sector and of the full-time variety, which tend to offer higher pay and steady benefits compared with part-time work.

    The ‘loonie’ has strengthened across the board +0.64% to C$1.2729 outright and +0.74% EUR/CAD to €1.4832.

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    Dean Popplewell

    Dean Popplewell

    Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
    Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
    Dean Popplewell

    @dean_forex

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