EUR Looking Bearish in Many Pairs (Video)

The most active pairing in the Euro is definitely the EURGBP. Brexit, ECB and BoE are all in the mix. Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst for Oanda discusses the technical layout of the currency and suggests that the Euro was overstretched leading in to the ECB meeting. However this is what was expected by the dovish stance held by the central bank. Craig says that “Barring any significant chance in data suggests that interest rates will raise sooner after the end of QE”. As a matter of fact Craig suggests that there is plenty of prosepct for the Euro to correct even more. The chart of the EURGBP is at a key technical level. From July onward the chart has been at a major zone of support. Conversely break of this level would be a particularly strong bearish signal. The Pound is in itself not particularly bullish as the expected rate hike is already priced in. EUR weakness could drive the pair even lower towards the next zone of support at 0.8650.

Yen and Dollar Pairs

Moving on Craig takes a look at the EURJPY. This chart shows very clearly that a bearish signal is waiting confirmation in the Euro. The technicals are poised for a downside, recently broke the rising trend lines. The break downward will be significant due to how often the it has held support. When we see the break of 131 or 131.50 that would be a very bearish signal.

Finally Craig takes aim at the EURUSD. Another chart that is not technically positive. The small head and shoulders move begun in September has now completed. On Thursday the chart broke through the neckline of a larger head and should formation begun in August. All of this points to much more downside. It could go down to 1.1450 or 1.1475. If the move downward is severe it could go down to 1.12 or 1.13.

Conclusion

The Dollar could end the year on a positive note. Whilst on the other hand the Euro could head lower and the ECB will be much happier for it.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.