Gold Starts Week With Gains, US Consumer Spending Improves

Gold has ticked higher in the Monday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1275.72, up 0.28% on the day. On the release front, Personal Spending jumped 1.0%, beating the estimate of 0.8%. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence.

The US consumer is optimistic about the economy, and that confidence has translated into stronger spending. Personal Spending gained 1.0% in September, its sharpest gain since April 2016. The strong reading comes on the heels of Friday’s UoM Consumer Sentiment Report, which hit an all-time high of 100.7 points in September. Another key consumer confidence will be reported on Tuesday, and the markets are expecting more good news. CB Consumer Confidence is forecast to climb to 121.1, up from 119.8 in the previous release. Consumer spending is a key driver of the economy, accounting for two-thirds of economic growth.

The US economy received a high grade on Friday, as Advance GDP for the third quarter posted a gain of 3.0%. This easily beat the forecast of 2.5%, and kept close pace with Final GDP in Q2, which gained 3.1%. The strong reading is welcome news for the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to raise rates at the December meeting. Employment and consumer data has been strong, with weak inflation the only real fly in the ointment. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other policymakers have downplayed the significance of low inflation, and the markets have responded by pricing in at December hike at 96%.

 

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (October 30)

  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.8%. Actual 1.0%
  • 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey

Tuesday (October 31)

  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 121.1

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

XAU/USD for Monday, October 30, 2017

XAU/USD October 30 at 12:35 EST

Open: 1274.13 High: 1275.94 Low: 1269.00 Close: 1277.63

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1213 1240 1260 1285 1307 1337
  • XAU/USD ticked lower in the Asian session but recovered in European trade. The pair has posted small gains in North American session
  • 1260 is providing support
  • 1285 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1260 to 1285

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1260, 1240 and 1213
  • Above: 1285, 1307, 1337 and 1367

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is showing limited movement in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (66%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.