Fed Powell Leads Central Bank Chair Race

The race for the Federal Reserve chair is coming to what could be a landslide finale.

According to data from political predictions market website PredictIt, Jerome Powell is leading the pack in the race to become the next chair of the U.S. central bank.

Early Monday, Oct. 30, Powell, who is currently a Fed governor, had about an 80% chance of being confirmed by the Senate as the Fed chairman on Feb. 4, 2018. His next closest competitor was Stanford economist John Taylor, who had about a 7% chance of winning the position.

PredictIt said the market for forecasting the next Fed chair has been “extremely” volatile. Though Powell has led since the beginning of October, there have been more than 54,500 trades on his prediction alone.

PredictIt also runs a market on who will become the next Fed vice vhair. According to data on Monday, that race is a little narrower, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and John Taylor in first and second places, respectively.

Powell is widely considered President Donald Trump’s top pick for Fed chairman. If Powell succeeds current Chair Janet Yellen, he’s expected to continue enacting low interest rate and balance sheet reduction for the central bank. Yellen’s term will end in February, but she has the option of finishing out her 10-year term as a Fed governor even if Trump replaces her as the bank’s chair.

The White House confirmed late last week that Trump will announce his pick for Fed chair sometime this week.

via The Street

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza