EUR/USD – Euro Gains Ground, All Eyes on Catalonian Crisis

The euro has recorded gains on Tuesday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1781, up 0.34% on the day. On the release front, Germany’s trade surplus climbed to EUR 21.6 billion, above the forecast of EUR 19.8 billion. French Industrial Production declined 0.3%, missing the forecast of a 04% gain. There are no major events out of the US. On Wednesday, the US releases JOLTS Job Openings and the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the September policy meeting.

The Catalan constitutional crisis is going down to the wire, as it remains unclear whether Catalan President Carles Puigdemont will unilaterally declare independence from Spain, after Catalonians voted in favor of independence. The national government has refused to negotiate with the Puigdemont about session, and on Sunday, a demonstration against the referendum attracted some 350,000 people, in a show of support for the Spanish government. If Puigdemont declares independence, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajo has promised to take drastic action, which could include dissolving the Catalan parliament. Investors are casting a nervous eye on the economic ramifications of the crisis. Two major banks, Caixabank and Sabadell, as well as several large corporations have announced that they are relocating their legal headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid. The tensions have not affected the euro so far, but that could change if Catalonia defies Madrid and declares independence.

The Federal Reserve did not raise rates at the September meeting, but the markets are clearly expecting one final rate hike in December. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a December rate hike are currently at 86%, compared to just 31% a month ago. Why the huge turnaround? A strong US economy has helped raise the odds, but the primary reason for the huge shift in market sentiment can be attributed to the Fed policymakers that have come out in support of a rate hike, notably Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The lack of inflation remains the most significant impediment to raising rates, but Yellen and other FOMC members have insisted that strong economic conditions will lead to higher inflation levels. Even if inflation does not move higher before 2018, the Fed now appears ready to press the rate trigger.

The Euro pops to one week highs

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (October 10)

  • 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 19.8B. Actual 21.6B
  • 2:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate +0.4%. Actual -0.3%
  • 4:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 1.2%
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 105.1
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speaks
  • 10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 54.2
  • 20:00 US FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks

Wednesday (October 11)

  • 10:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 6.06M
  • 14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, October 10, 2017

EUR/USD Tuesday, October 10 at 6:45 EDT

Open: 1.1741 High: 1.1789 Low: 1.1739 Close: 1.1775

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1489 1.1611 1.1712 1.1876 1.1996 1.2092

EUR/USD gained ground in the Asian session and has inched higher in European trade

  • 1.1712 has some breathing room in support after gains by EUR/USD on Tuesday
  • 1.1876 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1712, 1.1611, 1.1489 and 1.1366
  • Above: 1.1876, 1.1996 and 1.2018
  • Current range: 1.1712 to 1.1876

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (59%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions out and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.