GBP/USD – US GDP Shines, Pound Remains Steady

The British pound has recorded slight gains on Thursday, erasing the losses which marked the Wednesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3430, up 0.31% on the day. On the release front, there were no major British releases. In the US, GDP expanded 3.1%, beating the forecast of 3.0%. Unemployment claims jumped to 272 thousand, higher than the estimate of 269 thousand. On Friday, the US releases Personal Spending and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The US economy continues to hum in 2017, as Final GDP for the second quarter posted an impressive gain of 3.1%. This figure was revised upwards from the second estimate of 3.0% in August. However, September and third quarter economic numbers could soften, due to the damage caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused a slowdown in economic activity. The recent hurricanes have impacted on the labor market, pushing unemployment numbers higher. Still, the labor market remains strong, as underscored by unemployment rolls which have remained below the 300,000 level.

Donald Trump’s plans to reform health care appear dead-upon-arrival, so the US president has now set his sights on tax reform, another key campaign platform. On Wednesday, Trump proposed a major overhaul of the US tax code, which includes reducing the corporate tax rate to 20 percent, as well as 25 percent tax rate for small businesses, such as partnerships. Like other Trump proposals, the tax plan was sketchy on details, including how the tax plan would be paid for. With Democrats and some Republicans wary of Trump, it’s likely that tax reform will face a stiff battle in Congress.

Trump Tax Plan Sends Dollar, Bond Yields Higher

 

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (September 28)

  • 4:15 BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
  • 4:49 British Prime Minister Theresa May Speaks
  • 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 3.0%. Actual 3.1%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 269K. Actual 272K
  • 8:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.0%. Actual 1.0%
  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -65.0B. Actual -62.9B
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 1.0%
  • 10:15 US FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 77B. Actual 58B
  • 19:01 British GfK Consumer Confidence. Estimate -11

Friday (September 29)

  • 2:00 British Nationwide HPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.1%
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.3

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

GBP/USD for Thursday, September 28, 2017

GBP/USD September 28 at 12:00 EDT

Open: 1.3388 High: 1.3456 Low: 1.3343 Close: 1.3430

 

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3121 1.3224 1.3347 1.3444 1.3514 1.3667

GBP/USD edged lower in the Asian session but reversed directions and moved higher in European trade. The pair continues to move higher in North American trade

  • 1.3347 is providing support
  • 1.3444 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line. It could break in the North American session

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3347, 1.3224 and 1.3121
  • Above: 1.3444, 1.3514, 1.3667 and 1.3809
  • Current range: 1.3347 to 1.3444

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio has shown little movement this week. Currently, short positions have a majority (63%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.