USD/JPY – Dollar Rally Continues as North Korea Tensions Ease

USD/JPY has posted gains in the Tuesday session, continuing the upward movement which started the week. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 109.98, up 0.54% on the day. In the US, JOLTS  Job Openings improved to 6.17 million, easily beating the forecast of 5.96 million. Later in the day, Japan releases manufacturing and inflation reports. On Wednesday, the US will publish PPI, which is expected to improve to 0.3%.

After a week of increased tensions in the Korean peninsula, an easing in the crisis between North Korea and neighboring Japan and South Korea has seen an exit from safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen. USD/JPY has jumped 1.6% this week, erasing last week’s losses.  With North Korea celebrating its 69th anniversary of its founding, there were concerns that Pyongyang would use the occasion to flex some muscle and test a nuclear bomb or missile. North Korea marked last year’s anniversary by exploding its fifth nuclear test. There were no incidents over the weekend, although the US, along with its allies Japan and South Korea, remain on alert for further provocations from the north. The volatility which has marked the Japanese currency is testament to its safe-haven status, as investors have snapped up the yen when the North Korean crisis, one of the world’s geopolitical hot spots, heats up.

The US economy has been performing well in the second quarter. Preliminary GDP came in at a sizzling 3.0%, and the labor market remains close to capacity. Still, the Achilles heel of the economy remains stubbornly low inflation levels. Wage pressure has been limited, despite the fact that many businesses cannot fill job openings. Weak inflation has hampered the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates a third time this year, and the odds of a December hike have dipped to just 31%, as the markets are increasingly doubtful that the Fed will make a move before next year. Will the inflation picture improve? We could see better numbers this week for August inflation – PPI is expected to improve to 0.3% on Tuesday, and the same gain is forecast for CPI on Wednesday. Both estimates are higher than the July readings.

 

USD/JPY Fundamentals

Tuesday (September 12)

  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 104.8. Actual 105.3
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 5.96M. Actual 6.17M
  • 13:01 US 10-y Bond Auction
  • 19:50 Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index. Estimate 4.8
  • 19:50 Japanese PPI. Estimate 3.0%

Upcoming Key Events

Wednesday (September 13)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

USD/JPY for Tuesday, September 12, 2017

USD/JPY September 12 at 12:05 EDT

Open: 109.40 High: 110.10 Low: 109.24 Close: 110.05

 

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
106.28 107.49 108.69 110.10 110.94 112.57

USD/JPY showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in European trade and has leveled off in the North American session

  • 108.69 is providing support
  • 110.10 is under pressure in resistance. It could break in the North American session

Current range: 108.69 to 110.10

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 108.69, 107.49 and 106.28
  • Above: 110.10, 110.94, 112.57 and 113.55

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratios

In the Tuesday session, USD/JPY ratio is showing long positions with a majority (65%). This is indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.