Barclays research is predicting that Hurricane Irma’s insured damage in Florida could equal that inflicted by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
“Given the potential magnitude of this storm as well as the potential to impact a highly populated area, we think Irma’s insured damage in Florida could be the largest ever in the US perhaps equivalent to Hurricane Katrina,” wrote Barclays’ Jay Gelb on Tuesday.
“In a worst case scenario, catastrophe modelers AIR Worldwide and Karen Clark and Co. have estimated a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane could result in $125-130 billion of insured damage.”
With winds topping 175 mph, Category 5 Hurricane Irma on Tuesday became the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center. Meteorologists expect the storm to make landfall in the continental U.S. either late this week or early next week.
Even though the storm is not expected to touch Florida for several days, it is already driving home insurance stocks lower.
“We would view Irma as more of a risk to the traditional reinsurers as well as third-party providers of reinsurance capital,” noted Gelb. “Of the companies we cover, reinsurers expected to have among the largest exposures to a Florida hurricane could include Everest Group, XL Group, Validus Holdings, RenaissanceRe Holdings, and Aspen.”