Euro Zone Bond Sales Nudge Yields Away from Multi-Month Lows

Euro zone bond markets came under some selling pressure on Thursday as a brace of countries auctioned debt but benchmark yields did not stray far from multi-month troughs hit after a low inflation print earlier this week.

France and Spain sold around 13 billion euros of debt on Thursday, sales that pushed up yields on outstanding bonds as investors made room in their portfolios for the new supply.

But the moves were relatively muted as investors had one eye on the European Central Bank’s meeting next week at which it is expected to strike a cautious tone about future tightening of policy because of doubts around inflation.

Preliminary data on Wednesday showed euro area inflation fell below expectations to 1.4 percent in May, well below the ECB’s near 2 percent target and compared to 1.9 percent in April.

“Inflation this month is…consistent with what ECB officials have been saying in public in advance of that meeting; despite strengthening growth, broad inflation pressures remained weak,” RBC’s global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik said.

“While we are likely to see the ECB’s economic assessment upgraded, in the forward guidance, we expect that the ECB will maintain its overall dovish stance next week.”

German 10-year bond yields – the bloc’s benchmark – rose as much as 2 basis points on Thursday to 0.32 percent , but remained not far from the 0.286 percent hit Wednesday, its lowest in over a month.

Spanish yields rose around 3 bps to 1.56 percent, but remain close to four-month lows hit Wednesday. French equivalents were up 2 bps at 0.75 percent having hit 0.705 percent on Wednesday, their lowest since Jan. 3.

Spain sold 4.6 billion euros of debt at a triple bond sale of an inflation-linked bond maturing in 2030 and fixed-rate bonds maturing in 2021 and 2026 bonds.

France meanwhile sold just over 8 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2027, 2032 and 2039.

ECB policymakers are set to take a more benign view of the economy when they meet on June 8 and will even discuss dropping some of their pledges to ramp up stimulus if needed, sources told Reuters.

But some disagree on how quickly the central bank should change its policy stance and ECB chief Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that an “extraordinary amount” of monetary policy support is still needed because of weak inflation.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny added on Wednesday that inflation rates might remain low in the long term and the ECB’s target is therefore likely to be questioned.

Reuters

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell