IEA to Review Oil Demand after China, India Auto Policy Shifts

The International Energy Agency will review its electric vehicle (EV) use and oil demand forecasts after India and China recently signaled new policies in favor of electric cars and vehicles using other alternatives to gasoline.

In its current policies scenario, last updated in November 2016, the IEA expects vehicle demand for oil to rise until 2040.

But after the world’s two fastest growing oil markets, China and India, indicated they are likely to take radical turns away from gasoline, the IEA says it will need to review its forecasts.

“We will therefore revisit our analysis of future EV market penetration on the basis of these new announcements for the next World Energy Outlook 2017, to be released on 14 November,” an IEA spokesman told Reuters.

In its “road map”, released in April, China said it wants alternative fuel vehicles to account for at least one-fifth of a projected 35 million annual vehicle sales by 2025.

India is considering even more radical action, with an influential government think-tank drafting a report in support of electrifying all vehicles in the country by 2032, according to government and industry sources.

“There has been further policy momentum in support of electric cars, in particular from China and India,” the IEA said.

The IEA says that China and India currently consume 11 percent and 2 percent of global gasoline demand respectively.

“The choices made by China and India are obviously most relevant for the possible future peak in passenger car oil demand,” the IEA said.

Reuters

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell