Canada’s Economy Stalls

Canada’s economy unexpectedly stalled in February as manufacturing and production in other goods producing sectors shrank during the month. The real estate sector, which expanded 0.5 percent, had its best one-month gain since 2015 as housing in Toronto soared.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a 0.1 percent gain in February, after a 0.6 percent jump in January.

Key Points

  • The recovery in goods production seen in recent months came to a halt in February, with those sectors recording a 0.3 percent decline in February after three straight months of gains. Manufacturers recorded a 0.6 percent decline in production, with the mining sector down 0.2 percent.
  • On the upside, it’s all about real estate. The runaway housing market in Toronto was a major contributor to economic activity in February, fueling a 5.3 percent gain in output of real estate agents and brokers.
  • Other sectors benefiting from the hot housing market was the finance and insurance sector as a whole, which posted a 0.7 percent gain. Construction was up 0.5 percent during the month.
  • Gains in real estate and finance meanwhile are fueling demand for professional services like legal services. The professional, scientific and technical services component recorded a 0.5 percent increase, led by a 2.9 percent gain in legal services.
  • From a year earlier, GDP is up 2.5 percent in February, the biggest gain since January 2015.
  • Big Picture

    Canada’s housing sector, particularly in Toronto, has become both the main driver of growth and one of the biggest sources of uncertainty amid concern the gains aren’t sustainable.

    Even with the stalled growth in February, Canada is still on pace to have a strong first quarter, with annualized growth estimated to be just below 4 percent. That would likely be the fastest in the Group of Seven.

    At the same time, caution prevails. At a rate decision two weeks ago in Ottawa, Canada’s central bank revised up growth projections for 2017, but cut them for 2018 and raised questions about the sustainability of the rebound and the country’s long-term growth outlook.

    Bloomberg

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    Dean Popplewell

    Dean Popplewell

    Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
    Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
    Dean Popplewell