DAX Dips on North Korea, French Election Concerns

The DAX has posted slight losses on Tuesday, as the index trades at 12,025.00. On the release front, there are no events in the eurozone. On Wednesday, the eurozone releases Final CPI, with the indicator expected to soften to 1.5 percent.

The DAX was closed on Monday for Easter, and has resumed trade on Tuesday with slight losses. Investors are keeping a close eye on the French presidential election, with the first round of voting slated for April 23. The race remains extremely tight, with centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen tied at 22 percent. They are followed by Francois Fillon at 21% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 18 percent. If Macron and Le Pen reach the second round, Macron is expected to win decisively by a margin of 64-36. With only a few days to go before the vote, any change in poll numbers could have a significant impact on the stock markets. Another factor weighing on the markets is the crisis over North Korea, as the US continues to warn North Korea that that it will not allow the rogue country to continue to test ballistic missiles. US vice-president Mike Pence is in Japan for talks with Japanese officials, with trade issues and North Korea high on the agenda.

The eurozone won’t release its first event this week until Wednesday, with the release of Eurozone Final CPI for March. CPI has improved over six straight months, and the February reading of 2.0% was noteworthy as it reached the ECB inflation target. This strong figure has raised speculation that if inflation levels continue to move higher, the ECB may have to consider tightening policy in order to curb inflation. However, the markets are expecting the March reading to drop to 1.5%, which would allow the ECB to hold its monetary course. The ECB’s asset-purchase program is scheduled to remain in place until December, although the central bank could opt to bring up that date or taper the program if growth and inflation numbers in the eurozone are unexpectedly strong. There are also political considerations at play, as the ECB is reluctant to make any significant monetary moves with upcoming elections in France and Germany.

Economic Calendar

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (April 18)

• There are no Eurozone releases on the schedule

Wednesday (April 19)

• 8:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 2.24B
• 9:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 1.5%
• 9:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 0.7%
• 9:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 18.6B
• Tentative – German 30-y Bond Auction

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Tuesday, April 18 at 7:00 EST

Open: 12,135.50 High: 12,161.50 Low: 12,012.25 Close: 12,025.00

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