EUR/USD – Euro Subdued as German, Eurozone Service PMIs Improve

EUR/USD is unchanged in the Wednesday session, as the euro continues to have a quiet week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0680. On the release front, services reports are in focus. German Final Services PMI improved to 55.6, matching the forecast. Eurozone Final Services PMI climbed to 56.5, short of the forecast of 56.0 points. The US will release ADP Nonfarm Payrolls as well as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. As well, the Federal Reserve releases its minutes from the March policy meeting.

Eurozone indicators continue to point upwards, and German and Eurozone Services PMIs pointed to expansion in March. The German release hit a 15-month high, while the Eurozone indicator jumped to a 71-month high, although it missed expectations. The euro shrugged off these strong numbers, as it continues to have an uneventful week.  EUR/USD dropped 1.9 percent last week, marking its worst weekly decline since November 2016. Soft inflation numbers late in the week disappointed the markets and soured sentiment on the continental currency. German Preliminary CPI posted a weak gain of 0.2%, short of the forecast of 0.4%. This was followed by Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate, which slipped to 1.5%, missing the forecast of 1.8%. Although inflation levels have improved to their highest levels in years, they remain below the ECB target of 2.0%, so the central bank still has some breathing room and isn’t under immediate pressure to tighten monetary policy. The ECB’s asset purchase program of EUR 60 billion/mth is scheduled to expire in December.

What’s next for the Federal Reserve? With the US economy continuing to perform well, the discussions around the monetary policy tables are not whether the Fed will raise rates, but how many hikes we will see in 2017. The markets will be paying close attention to the minutes of the March meeting, when the Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, to a range of 0.75%-1.00%. Any hints about the timing of the next hike, as well as the tone of the minutes are factors which could move the currency markets on Wednesday. The markets considered the rate statement overly cautious, and this sentiment sent the US dollar broadly lower in March. If the reaction to the minutes is one of disappointment, the dollar could again experience broad losses.

Dollar Direction Depends on FOMC and U.S/China Summit

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (April 5)

  • 3:15 Spanish Services PMI. Estimate 57.2. Actual 57.4
  • 3:45 Italian Services PMI. Estimate 54.3. Actual 52.9
  • 3:50 French Final Services PMI. Estimate 58.5. Actual 57.5
  • 3:55 German Final Services PMI. Estimate 55.6. Actual 55.6
  • 4:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Estimate 56.5. Actual 56.0
  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 184K
  • 9:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 53.1
  • 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.0
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.1M
  • 14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Upcoming Key Events

Thursday (April 6)

  • 2:00 German Factory Orders. Estimate 3.5%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Actual 251K
  • 16:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speech

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, April 5, 2017

EUR/USD April 5 at 5:10 EST

Open: 1.0678 High: 1.0689 Low: 1.0668 Close: 1.0678

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0340 1.0506 1.0616 1.0708 1.0873 1.0985

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and this trend continues in European trade

  • 1.0616 is providing support
  • 1.0708 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0616, 1.0506 and 1.0340
  • Above: 1.0708, 1.0873, 1.0985 and 1.1097
  • Current range: 1.0616 to 1.0708

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving upwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.