DAX Steady on Solid German, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs

The DAX Index has edged lower in the Monday session, as the DAX trades at 12,366.50. On the release front, it’s a very busy start to the week. German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs continue to point to expansion. Both indexes improved in March, with readings of 58.3 and 56.3, respectively. Elsewhere in the eurozone, PPI came in at 0.2%, above the forecast of 0.0%. The unemployment rate edged lower to 9.5%, matching the forecast.

It was an impressive week for the DAX, which jumped 3.0 percent. Earlier on Friday, the DAX pushed above 12,300, its highest level since April 2015. The index has been boosted by strong German numbers across the German economy, as business confidence, retail sales and unemployment claims all beat their estimates last week. The German economy, the largest in Europe, is looking sharp and has enjoyed a robust first quarter in 2017. Stronger global trade has led to increased demand for German exports, notably cars and machinery. Germany’s GDP expanded 1.6% in 2016, its highest rate since 2012. The generally positive picture in Germany has boosted the eurozone economy and if the strong numbers continue, the ECB will be under more pressure to tighten monetary policy.

It’s been a turbulent start to Donald Trump’s presidency. The battles with the media continue, an economic policy remains a mystery, and Trump suffered a major setback has he couldn’t even muster a vote over his healthcare bill. Despite these hiccups, the US economy hasn’t missed a beat in 2017. The CB consumer confidence report soared to 125.6 in March, and strong consumer confidence levels should translate into increased consumer spending. GDP for the fourth quarter was revised to 2.1%, up from 1.9% in the previous GDP report. This points to strong growth for the economy, as the discussions around the monetary policy tables are not whether the Fed will raise rates, but will it press the rate trigger twice or three times in 2017. The Fed will release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday, and the markets will be looking for clues as to the timing of a possible rate hike.

Economic Calendar

Monday (April 3)

• 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.6. Actual 53.9
• 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.2. Actual 55.7
• 3:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.4. Actual 53.3
• 3:55 German Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.3. Actual 58.3
• 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.3. Actual 56.2
• 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 11.9%. Actual 11.5%
• 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
• 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 9.5%. Actual 9.5%
• 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.5
• 15:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -41.2

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Monday, April 3 at 6:45 EST

Open: 12,370.50 High: 12,377.50 Low: 12,332.25 Close: 12,366.50

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