West Texas Crude Moves Higher as Crude Inventories Misses Estimate

West Texas crude has moved higher for a second straight day. In Thursday’s North American session, WTI crude futures are trading at $49.30. Brent Crude futures have climbed to $52.24, as the Brent premium stands at $2.96. On the release front, Crude Oil Inventories posted a gain of 0.9 million, shy of the forecast of 1.2 million. Pending Home Sales jumped to 5.5%, well above the forecast of 2.3%. On Thursday, the US releases Final GDP and unemployment claims.

It’s been a rough March for oil prices, as WTI has fallen 8.6 percent. Markets remained concerned about a global oil glut, as increasing US production has offset OPEC production cuts. US Crude inventories continue to show surpluses, most of which have been higher than the forecast. Although another surplus was recorded last week, the reading of 0.9 million was slightly smaller than the estimate of 1.2 million. Still, total US crude inventories have reached an all-time high of 534.0 million barrels, so oil prices may continue to struggle to break above the symbolic $50 level.

President Donald Trump found himself on the short end of the stick in the rough-and tumble politics in Washington, as his bill to replace the Affordable Care Act was pulled before prior to a vote. This was a humiliating setback for Trump, given that the Republicans enjoying a majority in Congress. The bruising defeat has sent the US dollar sharply lower and market jitters higher. Trump’s administration has stumbled out of the starting gate, and after more than two months in office, he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. The inquiry into the Trump administration’s links with Russia is gathering steam, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has said he will now focus on tax reform, but he has his work cut out, trying to convince a skeptical Congress and general public that he can deliver the goods and push his tax legislation through Congress.

WTI/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (March 30)

  • 9:20 US FOMC Member Charles Evans Speech
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 5.5%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 0.9M

Upcoming Key Events

Thursday (March 30)

  • 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.0%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 244K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

WTI/USD for Wednesday, March 29, 2017

WTI/USD March 29 at 12:35 EST

Open: 48.56 High: 49.37 Low: 48.38 Close: 49.30

WTI USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
33.22 40.57 46.54 52.22 58.32 65.05

WTI/USD showed little movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted strong gains in North American trade

  • 46.54 is providing support
  • 52.22 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 46.54 to 52.22

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 46.54, 40.57 and 33.22
  • Above: 52.22, 58.32, 65.05 and 72.99

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.