GBP/USD – Pound Rises on Trump Healthcare Setback

GBP/USD has posted gains in the Monday, as the pair has hit 7-week highs. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2570. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week. There are no UK events on the schedule. In the US, we’ll hear from two FOMC members – Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. There are no US indicators until Tuesday, with the release of CB Consumer Confidence.

Donald Trump’s stunning ascendancy to the presidency last November triggered an impressive rally by the US dollar. However, market euphoria over Trump’s election win is long past. The inquiry into the Trump administration’s links with Russia continues to make headlines, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has been in office for over two months, but he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. Last week, Trump’s proposed bill to change Obamacare was not even voted on, as the White House could not garner enough support to pass the bill. This latest setback for the beleaguered Trump administration has boosted GBP/USD in the Monday session.

Week Ahead Trump Administration Fails with Healthcare Bill

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In the UK, last week’s consumer indicators pointed to stronger spending and inflation. Retail Sales sparkled in February with a gain of 1.4%, its highest gain since October 2016. At the same time, for the three months to February, retail sales suffered their biggest slide since 2010. This points to an erosion in consumer spending due to the weak pound, which has fallen 16 percent since the Brexit vote last June. The weak currency and higher oil prices have also sent inflation higher. CPI climbed 2.3% in February, beating the forecast of 2.1%. This is a significant reading, as it surpassed the BoE’s inflation target of 2.0% for the first time in three years. Higher inflation levels have increased speculation that the Bank of England, which has had a neutral stance on rate policy, could raise rates this year. BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent acknowledged that a rate hike was a possibility in 2017, and the BoE will be under further pressure to make a move if inflation continues to head upwards.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Monday (March 27)

  • 17:15 US FOMC Member Charles Evans Speech
  • 22:30 US FOMC Robert Kaplan Speech

Upcoming Key Events

Tuesday (March 28)

  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 113.9

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Monday, March 27, 2017

GBP/USD March 27 at 11:30 EST

Open: 1.2512 High: 1.2615 Low: 1.2507 Close: 1.2581

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2351 1.2471 1.2571 1.2706 1.2865 1.3033
  • GBP/USD posted small gains in the Asian session and stronger gains in the European session. The pair is steady in North American trade
  • 1.2571 has switched to a support role following gains by GBP/USD in the Monday session
  • 1.2706 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2571, 1.2471, 1.2351 and 1.2272
  • Above: 1.2706, 1.2865 and
  • Current range: 1.2571 to 1.2706

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, GBP/USD ratio is showing long and short positions are almost evenly split. This is indicative of a lack of trader bias as to which direction the pair will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.