USD Higher as March Fed Hike Likely

The dollar gained to seven week highs against a basket of currencies on Thursday, after hawkish comments by a Federal Reserve official late on Wednesday encouraged investors to expect a near-term interest rate hike.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard said an improving global economy and a solid U.S. recovery mean it will be “appropriate soon” for the Federal Reserve to raise rates, adding an important voice to the chorus of officials signalling rates may rise as soon as mid-March.



Those remarks come after New York Fed President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams rattled investors on Tuesday with more aggressive than expected language about raising rates.

“We’ve had this great run of data in the U.S. and the expectation on a March rate move has gone up,” said Steven Englander, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Citigroup in New York.

Futures traders are now pricing in a 78 percent chance of a Fed hike in March, up from 66 percent on Wednesday and from 35 percent on Tuesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer are both due to speak on Friday.

The dollar rose 0.38 percent against a basket of six major currencies to 102.17, its highest since Jan. 11.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza