EUR/USD – Euro Drops on Dovish Comments from ECB

EUR/USD is heading lower in the Tuesday session, as the pair trades at 1.0670. On the release front, German Industrial Production dropped 3.0%, well short of the estimate of +0.2%. In the US, the trade deficit is expected to edge lower to $45.0 billion. On the employment front, JOLTS Jobs Openings is expected to improve to 5.56 million.

Eurozone growth and inflation numbers have been moving higher. Inflation, which has been at low levels for years, has climbed in recent months, buoyed by higher oil prices. This is positive news for the ECB, which has long tried to raise inflation with an ultra-loose monetary policy. Still, inflation levels remain well below the ECB’s target of 2 percent. On Monday, ECB President Mario Draghi poured cold water on hopes of a change in monetary policy due to the improved economic climate. Draghi said that the Eurozone economy was not yet strong enough to withdraw the bank’s stimulus program. Draghi’s comments have sent the euro lower, as EUR/USD finds itself below the 1.07 level for the first time in February. There are also market jitters over Marie Le Penn, who kicked off her election campaign on the weekend. Le Pen has promised a referendum on taking France out of the European Union, which has put further pressure on the euro.

Just a few weeks on the job, Donald Trump continues to create controversy and his protectionist rhetoric is not endearing him to the markets. Moreover, the lack of an economic policy from the new administration is a major source of concern and the the post-election euphoria which sent the markets higher has dissipated. The Federal Reserve, which had trumpeted that it was planning a series of hikes in 2017 (sound familiar?), was more cautious in its recent rate statement and is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the coming months. If the economy continues to grow, there is a strong likelihood of another rate hike in the first half of 2017, which is bullish for the dollar. On the other hand, if Trump makes good on his promises to “make America first” and implement protectionist policies, the greenback could lose ground against major currencies such as the euro.

Sentiment Hampered By French Election Concerns

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (February 7)

  • 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -3.0%
  • 2:45 French Government Budget Balance. Estimate -69.0B
  • 2:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -4.2B. Actual -3.4B
  • 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -45.0B
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 5.56M
  • 10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 5.56M
  • 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 20.3B

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, February 7, 2017

EUR/USD February 7 at 6:05 EST

Open: 1.0743 High: 1.0755 Low: 1.0655 Close: 1.0669

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0414 1.0506 1.0616 1.0708 1.0873 1.0985

EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session and has posted more losses in European trade

  • 1.0616 is providing support
  • 1.0708 has switched to a resistance role following losses by EUR/USD in the Tuesday session

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0616, 1.0506 and 1.0414
  • Above: 1.0708, 1.0873, 1.0985 and 1.1114
  • Current range: 1.0616 to 1.0708

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions. Currently, long and short positions are almost evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction EUR/USD will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.