French Far Right Victory Would Fracture European Union

With Marine le Pen transforming her National Front (NF) into a party for the populist era, analysts have been carefully assessing how French elections in May could deal a “severe blow” to the European Union (EU).

“It’s difficult to imagine how the European Union could function should such a Euroskeptic (as Le Pen) be at the helm of one if its major economies … It would likely precede its fracturing,” Michael Hessel, political economist at Absolute Strategy Research, told CNBC via telephone.

He said that that low voter turnout would be Le Pen’s best hope of securing an unlikely election victory. He projected Le Pen had up to a one-in-five chance of becoming French president in May.

Le Pen has promised to renegotiate the terms of France’s membership of the European Union if elected president in May. However, her chances of victory appear to be limited. Opinion polls suggest Le Pen would be defeated by the former conservative prime minister and her most likely political rival, Francois Fillon, in the second and final round of voting.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza