GBP/USD – May Hopes to Play Trump Card

GBP/USD has posted losses on Friday, continuing the downward movement in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2550. On the release front, there are no UK events on the schedule. Over in the US, it’s a busy day, with the release of durable goods orders, UoM Consumer Sentiment and Advance GDP. The markets are expecting the GDP report, the first for Q4, to post a gain of 2.1 percent.

After the Brexit vote in June, many pundits predicted that the economy would tailspin. However, the economy has remained steady. On Thursday, Preliminary GDP beat the estimate, posting a strong gain of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016. At the same time, negotiations with the European Union have not yet started, and even staunch Brexit supporters would be hard pressed to argue that the economy will not take a hit when Britain leaves the continental club, at least in the short term. On Friday, Prime Minister May meets President Trump in Washington, the first foreign leader to meet the new president. Trump has spoken glowingly about the Britain’s decision to leave the EU, and May could use Trump’s admiration and support to her advantage, in the form of a free-trade deal with the US. May will have to navigate through rough waters when she negotiates the terms of Brexit with the Europeans and is looking to return home with some progress towards a new trade agreement with the United States. Such a deal would be a key achievement for the British leader, who could then demonstrate to her opponents, both domestically and in Europe, that Britain can “go it alone” without the EU.

Barely a week into the presidency of Donald Trump, there are already signs of the economic approach the administration appears to be taking. Trump declared in his inauguration address that he would put “America first”, and he has followed up with some protectionist measures. Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a broad trade agreement that would have covered some 40 percent of gobal GDP. After announcing he would renegotiate the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico, Trump took aim at his southern neighbor and announced that he would build a wall between the US and Mexico. Predictably, Mexico has reacted angrily to this move, and a scheduled meeting between Trump and Mexican President  Enrique Peña Nieto has been cancelled. In the latest salvo in the growing crisis, the White House White House suggested imposing a 20 percent tax on Mexican imports to pay for construction of the wall. Trump’s unconventional and disjointed approach to international trade could have major ramifications on global trade and could lead to financial instability in global markets.

 

Mexico Far Reaching Implications in APAC

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Friday (January 27)

  • 8:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 2.1%
  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.1%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 2.7%
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.2
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations. Estimate 98.2

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

GBP/USD for Friday, January 27, 2017

GBP/USD January 27 at 7:35 EST

Open: 1.2594 High: 1.2605 Low: 1.2516 Close: 1.2546

 

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2272 1.2351 1.2471 1.2579 1.2674 1.2775
  • GBP/USD posted losses in the Asian and European sessions
  • 1.2471 was tested in support earlier
  • 1.2579 has switched to resistance following losses by GBP/USD in the Friday session

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2471, 1.2351 and 1.2272
  • Above: 1.2579, 1.2674, 1.2775 and 1.2849
  • Current range: 1.2471 to 1.2579

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Friday session. Currently, long positions command a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.